The most politically important state in South India has been one that has rejected national parties for decades. The ruling DMK-Congress alliance is already looking to be on shaky ground after the DMK's A Raja was caught in Independent India's biggest scam.
However, the Opposition AIADMK, which is teaming up with up-start DMDK and has rejected all offers from the non-existent BJP, could face a big setback if it does not get its act together quickly.
It's an old story here. Traditionally, power has always alternated between the Congress-led UDF and the Left-led LDF. This time, with VS Achuthanandan working overtime to get over the SNC Lavlin case, the ball looks all set to roll over in favour of the UDF. But will keralites change that story and spring a surprise?
The Battle Royal of the 2011 elections, this year could finally see the great Left bastion being breached. Along with Tripura, Bengal has always been a bulwark of the Communist movement in India. But with a series of setbacks including the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and an Opposition that is already seeing itself with the prize, the fall of the Left Front seems imminent.
In a state where complex tribal affiliations has always been a determining factor, Tarun Gogoi's Congress Government looks to retain power. With the main Opposition AGP trying to create a rather unnatural AGP-BJP-AUDF alliance that is doomed right from the start, it seems difficult to imagine the Congress losing control. However, the huge reverses suffered by the ULFA, which has always had a say in electoral politics, could complicate the situation.
This is a no-brainer. A small UT in South India with a distinctly French culture and an Assembly. of 20 the Congress is sure to win this one.