Assembly Elections 2012

2012 comes with what many would describe as the mother of all Assembly Elections - the UP Vidhan Sabha polls. This election season will also see battles being fought over mining in Goa, ethnicity in Manipur and migration in Uttarakhand.

In UP, there are a myriad of factors at work. While caste is a major issue, it is no longer that simple anymore. The upper castes are disillusioned by the BSP, while Mayawati's core Dalit vote remains with her. Which way the upper castes go will have a strong impact on the results. But it's not just the BSP and SP, Congress heir Rahul Gandhi's political fortunes are tied to this one too. If the Congress lands a dismal fourth, his very future could come into question.

In Uttarakhand, it's a clear fight between the Congress and the BJP as the UKD is split down the middle and smaller parties have failed to impress the masses. The BJP has suffered due to the two-year term of Ramesh Pokhriyal 'Nishank,' but BC Khanduri seems to have worked his charm yet again. With delimitation having reflected the migration to the plains, this one will be tricky.

Corruption and mining will be the most important factors in Goa, now in its 51st year as a State of the Union. Digambar Kamath's Government already looks weak, but can the BJP actually inspire anybody in this state given its track record in neighbouring Karnataka?

Ethnic fault-lines will grow sharper than ever in Manipur. The 100+ day economic blockade, and similar ones before it, have created a lot of bad blood between traditional Naga and Kuki rivals. Caught in this crossfire, the Congress will have to convince the majority Meities that it can protect their interests and take the entire state along. The Irom Sharmila factor remains ever-present over the Ibobi Singh Government and the spate of bomb blasts in Imphal stands testament that the debate over AFSPA in J&K will find resonance here.

Punjab will be the most difficult of all states to predict. Heights of nepotism, crisis-ridden state finances and corruption could all work against the ruling BJP-SAD government led by the Badals. The Congress looks increasingly strong and none other than Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will be roped in to attract voters.

In this season of elections, OTFS follows the twists and turns as over a quarter of India's population votes for their state governments.