Monday, March 5, 2012

A Look into the Exit Polls




Now that the month-long Assembly Elections are over, news channels have revealed their projections. Now, I am aware that most of these polls tend to get it wrong, but that is actually not the case. Many a time, a poll of polls can give you a fairly decent idea of the final results.

Going by the current polls, one thing is for sure: the BSP Government will be voted out and the SP will form a Government in UP. This is perhaps the only shock for us at OTFS, but then, some logical reasoning does explain that. Mayawati's statue-building spree seems to have cost her. Her social engineering, which won her a majority in 2007, has come apart and people want results, not symbolism anymore. This is definitely a healthy sign but whether the SP will get them that or whether it will be Goonda Raj again is yet to be seen. Perhaps, the swing factor was Akhilesh Yadav's fresh ideology.

The Congress is set to emerge the real loser, despite all its attempts to woo minority votes. Rahul Gandhi has clearly failed and the very idea of him being made PM should scare Congressmen now. He cannot get votes where it counts, he does not connect with the electorate. Now, the Congress has begun a 'Save Rahul' campaign which reeks of sycophancy, but the bitter truth is that he is not fit for politics.

In Manipur, as predicted, the Congress will emerge as the largest party. But, the Trinamool could upset the cart if it chooses to all with the MPP, in which case the broad-based alliance that includes the CPI could gain a majority. But of course, that is easier said than done. Although the TMC and the CPI are sworn enemies, such things take a backseat in Northeast India, where tribal identities matter more.

In Goa, the BJP is set to form a Government with a small majority, while it would be the other way round in Uttarakhand. The real race is in Punjab, where not even the best of Exit Polls has been able to co e to a conclusion, which was the same case with out predictions.

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