Thursday, May 15, 2014

Miles Away at Home

The time has finally come - after several months of campaigning, the six-week long electoral exercise having ended and two days of saucy exit polls (including egg on Arnab Goswami's face!) later, the time has finally arrived for the results.

A bunch of friends from IGSA, who have unofficially been called 'bhakts,' are meeting up tonight to watch the results. We are all quite upset at having been stuck in this foreign land and not having been able to vote in this crucial election. Nonetheless, as was very apparent to anyone reading this blog, we are very pleased at the expectations of Ab Ki Baar Modi Sarkaar i.e., a clear majority to the NDA.

A little on the exit polls. I was a little surprised to see a majority of them giving a clear majority to the NDA - I was expecting something closer to 250. Sure, a few outliers here and there are possible but all except one gave a clear majority. The vote shares, which tend to be accurate, were quite similar for all, indicating less than 25% for the UPA and more than 35% for the NDA - a sharp difference of 10% which holds out for the BJP and Congress as well. The exit polls did have some humor with the ORG controversy, which showed that Times Now's mega exit poll, as they called it, might not be very accurate. No wonder then, that it was the outlier on the lower side, predicting 249 for the NDA. The other outlier was on the higher side, with Today's Chanakya giving the NDA 289. The only thing to take note of is that this relatively unknown agency has gotten fairly good forecasts before, most famously its forecast for AAP in the Delhi Assembly elections in 2012. So, it might not be fair to write them off.

It is quite clear now that the Congress will not be returning to power. What is unclear is if it will be a Modi sarkaar or some rag-tag Third Front with Congress support, which would be the worst possible situation for the country. Enough of the speculation, for millions of expats around the world, the time has come to know what our fellow Indians have said! 

No comments: